Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4592
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4592 · MDW → ATL
departs 6:05 PM CT · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±13 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.