Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4604
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4604 · MSY → BNA
departs 10:05 AM CT · arrives 11:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Thu 10/8 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day
↓
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late
↓
10am departures from MSY are usually not late
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.31 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.