Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4605
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4605 · OAK → DAL
departs 5:05 AM PT · arrives 10:30 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day
↑
OAK is prone to delays
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from OAK are usually not late
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.26 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.