WN 4628 · AUS → STL

departs 5:01 PM CT · arrives 7:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.19 in

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4628 · AUS → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?