Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4630 · BNA → PNS
departs 7:40 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at PNS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PNS?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 3.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PNS that day
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
PNS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 2.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.