Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4633
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4633 · STL → ECP
departs 10:45 AM CT · arrives 12:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ECP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ECP?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.5 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ECP (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 2.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.