Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4636 · ECP → BNA
departs 2:05 PM CT · arrives 3:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.5 in of rain forecast at ECP that day
↑
2pm departures from ECP are often late
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
ECP usually runs smoothly
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ECP (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 3.52 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.