Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4686 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

WN 4686 · BHM → DAL

departs 7:15 AM CT · arrives 9:00 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at BHM that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.30 in

DAL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4686 · BHM → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?