WN 4688 · BWI → LAX

took off 6:34 AM ET · expected to land 8:39 AM PT (scheduled 6:17 AM ET → 8:38 AM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

LIVE

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.17 in

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4688 · BWI → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?