WN 4688 · BWI → LAX

departs 6:16 AM ET · arrives 8:38 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.18 in

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4688 · BWI → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?