Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4689 · BWI → ATL
departs 6:20 AM ET · arrives 8:15 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 7%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±6 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from BWI are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.32 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.