Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4692
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4692 · BWI → MSY
departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 10:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.18 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.