Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 470 · CHS → BWI
departs 3:25 PM ET · arrives 5:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 31%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CHS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
3pm departures from CHS are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.73 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.