WN 472 · DEN → LGA

departs 5:05 PM MT · arrives 10:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts −21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
36%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 472 · DEN → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?