Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4733
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4733 · BNA → MKE
departs 5:50 PM CT · arrives 7:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MKE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MKE?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MKE (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.