Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4745
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4745 · HOU → MEM
departs 8:45 PM CT · arrives 10:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at HOU that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
HOU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.