Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4758
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4758 · DEN → MCI
departs 9:00 PM MT · arrives 11:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 25%
Thu 10/8 13%
Fri 10/9 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.