Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4771
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4771 · RDU → HOU
departs 5:05 AM ET · arrives 6:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.3d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at HOU that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from RDU are usually not late
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.41 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.