WN 4782 · SMF → SAN

took off 11:44 AM PT · landed 12:55 PM PT (scheduled 10:46 AM PT → 12:28 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4782 · SMF → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?