Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4792
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4792 · PHX → SLC
departs 9:35 PM MT · arrives 12:15 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 21%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SLC at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.