WN 4797 · LGA → BNA

departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 5:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.07 in

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4797 · LGA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?