Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4828
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4828 · HOU → MDW
departs 11:50 AM CT · arrives 2:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at HOU that day
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.