Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4830 · MCO → BNA
departs 10:55 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 37%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
67%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
67%
Leave 15+ late
71%
Arrive 1h+ late
32%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
67%
Yes 67%
No 33%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
34%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.