Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4842
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4842 · CMH → TPA
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from CMH are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.