WN 4845 · LGA → MDW

took off 6:21 PM ET · expected to land 7:12 PM CT (scheduled 5:45 PM ET → 7:04 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MDW?

LIVE

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at LGA that day

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.15 in

MDW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4845 · LGA → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?