Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4846 · MCI → AUS
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 11:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.