Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4850
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4850 · PNS → MCI
departs 11:20 AM CT · arrives 1:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 2.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PNS that day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PNS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 2.25 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.