WN 4877 · AUS → STL

departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 3:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4877 · AUS → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?