Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4900
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4900 · LAS → BUR
departs 3:20 PM PT · arrives 4:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.