Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4912
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4912 · STL → OMA
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 11:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.