Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4927
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4927 · SAT → MSY
departs 10:55 AM CT · arrives 12:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 2.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Other factors
↓
10am departures from SAT are usually not late
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.