Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4934
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4934 · SMF → LGB
departs 7:35 PM PT · arrives 9:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.