Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4951
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4951 · MSY → SAT
departs 1:05 PM CT · arrives 2:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.49 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.