Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4972
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4972 · HOU → ABQ
departs 4:30 PM CT · arrives 5:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at HOU that day
↑
4pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.15 in
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.