Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4977
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4977 · OAK → BUR
departs 4:55 PM PT · arrives 6:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.