Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4980
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4980 · SAT → TPA
departs 2:00 PM CT · arrives 5:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.