Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4994 · HNL → SJC
departs 11:00 AM HT · arrives 7:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SJC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SJC?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into SJC at that hour are often late
↓
HNL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.