Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5021 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

WN 5021 · LAS → SAN

departs 5:50 AM PT · arrives 7:00 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Sundays in October are usually busier than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from LAS are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5021 · LAS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?