Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5022
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 5022 · PHX → SAN
departs 10:30 AM MT · arrives 11:45 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.