Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5070
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 5070 · DAL → MSY
departs 4:10 PM CT · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.21 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 567 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.