Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5092
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 5092 · SAN → PHX
departs 8:55 PM PT · arrives 10:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.1d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.