Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 528 · BWI → RDU
departs 7:15 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
7pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.05 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.