Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 586 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 586 · BNA → PHX

departs 1:56 PM CT · arrives 3:06 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 586 · BNA → PHX

Odds over time