Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 644 · AUS → ELP
departs 8:55 AM CT · arrives 9:25 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
ELP is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
ELP (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.