WN 648 · MCO → SAT

departs 9:55 PM ET · arrives 11:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 648 · MCO → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?