Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 654 LANDED 10:50 AM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

WN 654 · MDW → DSM

took off 10:01 AM CT · landed 10:50 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ MDW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 654 · MDW → DSM

Odds over time