Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 768
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 768 · BWI → BUF
departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.38 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.