Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 839
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 839 · BUR → PHX
departs 8:45 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.