Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 857 · BWI → ALB
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 2%
Fri 10/9 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
5.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ALB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ALB?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BWI is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into ALB at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.18 in
ALB (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.