Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 862 · ISP → BWI
departs 10:50 AM ET · arrives 12:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ISP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.12 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.