Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 864 · DAL → SAT
departs 12:15 PM CT · arrives 1:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at SAT that day
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
↓
Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.